Census 2000 And It's Impact On Future Format Changes

[PublicRef2 <norwood@mln.lib.ma.us>]

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This week, we're all filling-out our census forms.

I think the results of Census 2000 could trigger major programming and
format changes on some radio stations in some markets based on major
demographic shifts.

Possible cases and markets:

(1) Los Angeles: While L.A. has always had a large Mexican-American
community, the percentage of the area population that is of Mexican
ancestry started to explode in the 1990 census. I wouldn't be surprised
if the percetage of the population that is Mexican-American in this
week's census passes
70% (within the city limits), 55% (within Los Angeles County), and nears
50% (entire market). This could trigger some format changes from
English-language programming to Spanish-language programming. Late last
year, an English-language rock station in the L.A. market switched to
Spanish-language programming just to take advantage of the increasing
Hispanic population.

(2) Miami/South Florida: Hispanics are already (1990)a majority in Dade
County. They may become the majority in the entire Miami market (both
radio and TV), which could trigger a couple of more Suth Florida radio
stations to drop English for Spanish, and perhaps also convince a
current English-language TV station to switch to Spanish.

(3) Philadelphia and Chicago: The percentage of the population within
the city limits of both these cities that is African-American was
nearing 50% in 1990. In both cities (again, within the city limits),
that number should be well above 50% in the 2000 census. It could result
in more black programming on radio in those cities, and increasing
shares for current stations catering to the local black community.

(4) Las Vegas: This market will probably be three to four times as big
in 2000 than it was in 1990. I wouldn't be surpsied to see the
population of Las Vegas soar to 1,000,000 within the city limits, and
1,500,000 in the total TV and radio market. Might zoom into the top ten
markets, and suddenly become a big "must buy" market for advertisers and
agencies, which would substantially raise ad
rates on Las Vegas stations, and the physical values of the stations
themselves.

(5) Boston: Within the city limits, I forsee the Black population
increasing from 25% (1990) to 38% (this year), enroute to passing the
50% mark between 2012 and 2015, and the Hispanic population about
doubling from 5% (1990) to 9% (this year).

I feel convincd that the results of Census 2000 could include radio
station format changes to take advantage of either market growth (as in
Las Vegas), or serving the needs of increasing ethnic populations (the
other markets I have mentioned).

Joseph Gallant
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