Re: Census 2000 And It's Impact On Future Format Changes

[Mike Thomas <nostatic@earthlink.net>]

The formatic changes have been happening already--no need to wait for the
cencus results, particularly in Los Angeles.  With the Clear Channel/AMFM
merger, several suburban FMs were spun off to Spanish language
broadcasters.  Hispanic has a cluster in LA, and Big City recently flipped 3
suburban FM's (the syncronous 107.1 stations) to Spanish as "Viva 107."
There seems to be a wide variety of stations there doing Spanish language
programming, up from two full signal FM's just a couple of years ago.

In Philly, there are already two FM Urbans, an Urban AC, a Jammin' Oldies
station and several AM's with programming targeted to the black community.
A similar situation exists in Chicago.  However, there is still a sizable
white population in the suburbs of both cities, so the mainline formats
won't be bailing for urban anytime soon.

Mike Thomas
WXLO & Mediabase 24/7

PublicRef2 wrote:

> I'm not sending this through my regular E-Mail server. To respond, reply
> to: <notquite@hotmail.com>. Thanks!
>
> This week, we're all filling-out our census forms.
>
> I think the results of Census 2000 could trigger major programming and
> format changes on some radio stations in some markets based on major
> demographic shifts.
>
> Possible cases and markets:
>
> (1) Los Angeles: While L.A. has always had a large Mexican-American
> community, the percentage of the area population that is of Mexican
> ancestry started to explode in the 1990 census. I wouldn't be surprised
> if the percetage of the population that is Mexican-American in this
> week's census passes
> 70% (within the city limits), 55% (within Los Angeles County), and nears
> 50% (entire market). This could trigger some format changes from
> English-language programming to Spanish-language programming. Late last
> year, an English-language rock station in the L.A. market switched to
> Spanish-language programming just to take advantage of the increasing
> Hispanic population.
>
> (2) Miami/South Florida: Hispanics are already (1990)a majority in Dade
> County. They may become the majority in the entire Miami market (both
> radio and TV), which could trigger a couple of more Suth Florida radio
> stations to drop English for Spanish, and perhaps also convince a
> current English-language TV station to switch to Spanish.
>
> (3) Philadelphia and Chicago: The percentage of the population within
> the city limits of both these cities that is African-American was
> nearing 50% in 1990. In both cities (again, within the city limits),
> that number should be well above 50% in the 2000 census. It could result
> in more black programming on radio in those cities, and increasing
> shares for current stations catering to the local black community.
>
> (4) Las Vegas: This market will probably be three to four times as big
> in 2000 than it was in 1990. I wouldn't be surpsied to see the
> population of Las Vegas soar to 1,000,000 within the city limits, and
> 1,500,000 in the total TV and radio market. Might zoom into the top ten
> markets, and suddenly become a big "must buy" market for advertisers and
> agencies, which would substantially raise ad
> rates on Las Vegas stations, and the physical values of the stations
> themselves.
>
> (5) Boston: Within the city limits, I forsee the Black population
> increasing from 25% (1990) to 38% (this year), enroute to passing the
> 50% mark between 2012 and 2015, and the Hispanic population about
> doubling from 5% (1990) to 9% (this year).
>
> I feel convincd that the results of Census 2000 could include radio
> station format changes to take advantage of either market growth (as in
> Las Vegas), or serving the needs of increasing ethnic populations (the
> other markets I have mentioned).
>
> Joseph Gallant
> Reply To: <notquite@hotmail.com>