Predictions for 2000

[PublicRef2 <norwood@mln.lib.ma.us>]

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At considerable risk, I am again making predictions on broadcasting for
the next year. I will submit fewer predictions than in past years, and I
think these, as a whole, are not as "far-out" as in the past.

Here goes:

(1) Consolidation will continue unabated. The FCC will lift the ceiling
on the number of markets one owner can have TV stations in. This will
lead to a multi-year consolidation trend that will see ABC, CBS, Fox,
NBC and WB's co-owner Tribune own all of their respctive network's
affiliates. The billions that these companies will need to pay to buy
their affiliates--and I see very few affiliate changes--will be saved
down the road in he elimination of affiliate compensation. Networks
won't have to compensate afffiliates anymore because all 200-or-so
affiliates are network-owned.

(2) But the price to the networks will be dear Ed Ansin will cash-out of
the business and pocket some $1.3 BILLION. Of that, $ 800 million will
come from NBC buying WHDH in Boston, and the rest from Fox buying WSVN
in Miami.

(3) Disney/ABC will pull-off the first billion-dollar single-station
sale when it buys WCVB-5 for that amount from Hearst/Argyle.

(4) But WCVB will slip in the news ratings. Chet and Nat will be
professionally split--with Chet co-anchoring noontimes with Susan
Wornick and Nat co-anchoring at 5:30 with Anthony Everett. Brian Leary
and Heather Kahn will become WCVB's primary news anchor team, at 5, 6,
and 11 P.M. These changes could well occur prior to the February sweeps.
By the end of 2000, Channel 7 will dominate Boston's TV news scene and
be top-rated across-the-board.

(5) Mid-size radio groups like Greater Media and Entercom will vanish
(other than for Hispanic or African-American-owned companies).
Disney/ABC will also make a big push for radio ownership here in Boston,
buying Entercom's holdings. Most of Greater Media's holdings in Boston
will get sold to Clear Channel, although Disney/ABC might get a couple
of stations out of it.

(6) WBOS' AAA format will get another stay of execution when WXRV is
sold to Radio One to simulcast WBOT. And, once Greater Media cashes out,
Clear Channel will give WBOS yet another say of execution--because by
that time, the station's ratings will be going up.

(7) In New York, CBS/Infinity will move Howard Stern to WNEW-FM, and
it's "Extreme Talk" format will get syndicated as a ful-fledged network.
The current Steve & Sue morning team here will move to WXRK, and play
classic rock.

(8) The conversion of WNEW to flagship of an extreme-talk network will
result in programming changes at two of CBS' local FM stations. WZLX
will get "blown up" after Charles Laquidara leaves, and WBCN's call
letters and format--EXCEPT for Stern and the Patriots--will go to 100.7
FM. Stern and the Pats will stay at 104.1, along with the rest of the
Extreme Talk Network. Chuck Nolan, now PM man at WZLX will end up being
the morning DJ,. playing modern rock, of the newly-relocated WBCN.

(9) This change will both help and hurt (prior to it being sold)
Gtreater Media. It will help WROR, who will see a major competitor
vanish, but will hurt WTKK to the point that after it's sold, it's new
owner (Clear Channel) willchange formats.

(10) The big-money TV game-show craze will prove to have it's limits.
ABC's "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" will continue to enjoy high
ratings and Fox's "Greed" will enjoy moderate success, but CBS' "Winning
Lines" and NBC's revival of onetime scandal-plagued "Twenty-One" will
tank in the ratings.

(12) UPN will fold at the end of the May sweeps (with WWF wrestling,
"Star Trek Voyager", and a couple of UPN's urban sitcoms moving over to
CBS), and WSBK will again become an independent station, reviving it's
old "TV-38" positioner and bringing back it's 1976-96 logo. Once more,
WBZ will produce a 10 P.M. newscast for WSBK, and you'll even see a
handful of times in the 2000/2001 Bruins season where a "big" game gets
on WBZ, with that night's CBS prime-time lineup moved over to WSBK. And,
the Celtics will return to over-the-air TV in 2000/2001 with Fox Sports
New England sub-livcensing 25 road games to WSK/WBZ. But these will be
the "stiffs" (Clippers, New Jersey, etc.). The "big" away games (Lakers,
New York, Indiana) will remain on FSNE.

(13) Sean McDonough will get the play-by-play job for Sox road games on
WFXT, the number-one baseball play-by-play job at the Fox Network, and
even do a few NFL games, where he will soon be dubbed the heir-apparant
to Pat Summerall.

(14) Norfolk's WDIS will change call letters, and be paid a pretty penny
to do so. They'll be paid by Disney/ABC, so that the WDIS call letters
will re-appear on 1560 in New York. This change should occur very early
in the new year.

(15) As the year ends, Clear Channel will begin to float the idea of
having all their radio music formats done by satellite, as an in-house
project. This means the company will produce, for example, a 24/7
satellite country format exclusively for those company stations
programing country. Locally, WXKS-FM will become home base of Clear
Channel's CHR format, which means Matt Siegal and Dale Dorman, in AM
drive and PM drive respectively, will be heard on dozens of Clear
Channel CHR formatted stations across the nation. The rest of the on-air
lineup will come from other Clear Channel CHR stations. The industry
will be watching carefully. If satellite formats in big markets take
off, it may mean the death knell for local radio.

(16) At most of those few music-formatted FM stations that still air
newscasts in morning drive, that practice will cease (along with
elimination of sports, and cutbacks in traffic and weather), to be
replaced by a few more minutes of music each hour--and a couple of more
minutes of commercials!

(17) Even before Entercom sells WEEI, most of it's local sports talk
hosts will be replacved by SPN radio. Entercom beancounters will learn
that their costs will go way down and their ratings and revenues will
stay the same with ESPN radio, which will mean more profit---and less
local radio.

(18) In New York, little WNSW will be the surprise among older adults,
and be one of the last bastions of local radio in large markets(since
many of these predictions project satellite formats to move into major
markets in a big way) .

Joseph Gallant
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