Re: Telecommunications Act (Lack of) Coverage

[dan.strassberg@att.net]

What you say is true, but what kind of guy (OK, we know 
one--Bob Bittner) would turn down an offer of, say, $3 
million for a property that he had been unable to unload 
for, say, $500k for the previous five years. (Just to 
clarify, I'm not suggesting that Bob has _ever_ tried to 
sell WJIB or WJTO.)

So the small operators who sold are blameless too. But 
this is a zreo-sum game, isn't it? Assuming that all of 
these sales took place during a transitory "bubble" in 
station values that resulted from the Communications Act 
of 1996, _someone_ (besides all of the displaced 
employees) has to get hurt, and get hurt badly. I 
think "someone" would be the investors who bought at the 
top and will likely see the values of these big groups 
collapse the way the values of the dot coms collapsed.

For sure, in an age of direct satellite broadcasting, 
with its necessarily national content, CC's policy of 
sacrificing localism for profit will reduce the value of 
its stations, which won't be able to differentiate 
themselves from the satellite competition. We will then 
see the rebirth of localism in radio, most likely 
followed by the rapid divestiture (or at least LMAing) 
of a lot of properties, followed in turn by a collapse 
of station values, a collapse of group-owner market 
values, and very likely some very high-profile corporate 
takeovers or outright bankruptcies.

Of course, that scenatio could be just wishful thinking 
on my part. However, I hope that's what happens because, 
in my opinion, the collapse of the big groups is 
necessary for the restoration of half-decent radio in 
the US. Note I said necessary; I did NOT say sufficient. 
The death of the big groups won't guarantee improvement; 
it might just leave US radio worse off than it is now.

> Consolidation could never have occurred if the "small-time" guys
> hadn't sold out.  Making them sound as if they were all blameless
> victims hides the fact that many of them profited quite handsomely
> from all of the consolidation that occurred.