Re: Last gasps of WQEW (Was Re: [Fwd: WQEW make your move])

[Dan Strassberg <dan.strassberg@worldnet.att.net>]

At 09:08 PM 12/25/98 -0500, you wrote:

>If the numbers are to be
>believed, QEW was having a tough time selling the format.  I don't know if
it would
>make good business sense to buy a New York AM for top dollar and flip it to
>standards if the advertising support isn't there.
>
Despite a weekly cume of over 600,000 (as reported by M Street Journal),
WQEW was billing only about $4.5 million. Compare that with $40+ million for
WFAN, $36.5 million for WINS, and $31 million for WCBS (AM). According to M
Street, the 600,000 cume equalled that of KABC and exceeded that of the
top-rated station (not named by M Street) in the DC Market. I'm sure that
both KABC and the DC market's top-rated station bill _way_ more than $4.5
million each.

I think that Liu paid $19 million for WPAT, which is arguably his best New
York area AM signal. Assuming that he could do adult standards on WPAT
without employing union talent (obviously a big part of WQEW's high
expenses--and perhaps not necessary for a station licensed to Paterson), can
you tell me what he'd have to bill to obtain a reasonable return on his
investment? (Never mind equalling the return he's probably making with the
current brokered Spanish programming, just what would he have to bill to
achieve what most broadcasters would call a _fair_ return?)

My guess is that if Liu were to try AS on WPAT, he'd do it with one of the
satellite-delivered services. Even with a sizeable promotion budget, this
would not garner the same size audience that WQEW achieved. Without another
signal to sell as a combo with WPAT, how likely would this incarnation of AS
in the New York market be to succeed financially?

I'd say that the company most likely to be able to make an AS station work
in the New York market is Buckley. Conceivably, the station could be an
addition to the WDRC simulcast, but with its own local news content--either
produced by WOR or purchased from Metro or Shadow or whoever. I think that
WOR's sales staff could succeed at selling an AS station as a combo buy with
WOR. There is not that much difference in the demos of the AS audience and
the mature end of the New York talk audience, to which WOR caters. Yet the
programming preferences of the two audiences are radically different. A buy
of WOR plus an AS station ought to offer low duplication of listeners. Now,
what are the chances that Buckley would be willing (or able) to offer Liu
the $25 million that almost certainly constitutes the lowest price at which
he'd sell WPAT? 

- -------------------------------
Dan Strassberg (Note: Address is CASE SENSITIVE!)
ALL _LOWER_ CASE!!!--> dan.strassberg@worldnet.att.net
(617) 558-4205; Fax (617) 928-4205

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