Re: Another set of Predictions for 1999.

[nuhuc@juno.com (Rick Kelly)]

On Sun, 13 Dec 1998 16:05:36 +0000 Dan Strassberg
<dan.strassberg@worldnet.att.net> writes:

>I like a lot of these predictions but I don't believe a one. Maybe the
>prediction that is most likely to come true is that in December 1999, 
>Joseph Gallant will once again more than double the number of inaccurate

>(albeit interesting) predictions he makes about Boston radio and TV. If
I 
>recall correctly, last year's list included 17. This year's includes
over 40. 

For those who perhaps don't recall of never saw those predictions for
1998 that were made in late 1997 by Mr. Gallant,  here they are:
_________________________________________________________________

Subject: One Person's Predictions for 1998.

Trying to gaze into a crystal ball, here are some predictions of things I
 think will happen in broadcasting during 1998:

(1) Acquisitions and Consolidation will continue. Locally, the CBS/ARS
 merger will go through--with CBS keeping WEEI and WRKO from the ARS
 group (plus their current stations) and the other stations spun-off as
 follows:

  WEGQ-FM: Sold at a very low price to Nash, who moves the WILD call
  letters and format there.

  WBMX-FM and WAAF-FM: Sold to Chancellor broadcasting.

  WNFT-AM: Sold to Bloomberg.

(2) Two major Boston TV stations will be sold in 1998. NBC will finally
get
 a Boston O & O, spending almost $ 700 million to buy WHDH-ch. 7. The
price
 will seem obscene for a Boston TV station until.......

(3) ....A few weeks after the NBC/WHDH deal, Disney/ABC will buy WCVB-ch.
5
 from Hearst/Argyle for almost one BILLION dollars, the biggest price
ever
 paid for a single TV station.

(4) Besides acquiring WBMX and WAAF, Chancellor will buy the
newly-increased-
 in-power WKOX-1200 and move the WXKS-AM call letters and format to 1200
 from 1430. And, in a surprising development, the 50-KW WXKS-AM will have
 local live personalities during the daytime (5 A.M.-7 P.M. weekdays)
 hours, reducing satellite to nights, overnights, and parts of the
weekends.

(5) Chancellor will spin-off 1430 to ADD Media as yet another leased-time
 ethnic station.

(6) Boston will get an all-talk FM station early in 1998 when Greater
Media
 changes WBOS-FM's format from AAA music to "Hot" Talk, with Mark
Parenteau
 as morning host and format centerpiece. By the end of 1998, Parenteau's
 show will be a moderate success---but the rest of "Hot Talk 92.9"'s
lineup
 will be struggling in the ratings.

(7) It will be a bittersweet 50th anniversary for WBZ-TV-4. The station
will
 celebrate the event, but there will be very little to celebrate. Inspite
 of having the Winter Olympics, WBZ-TV's newscasts will still be mired in
 a deep third, EVEN DURING the Olympics (when the closing
"Da-Da-Ta-Ta-Ta-
 Ta" fanfare plays at 11 P.M. to mark the end of prime-time CBS coverage
 from Nagano, hundereds of thousands of viewers will switch to channels
 5 or 7).

(8) As a result of the "Nagano Debacle" (getting huge ratings for Olympic
 broadcasts, but not seeing news ratings go up as a result), WBZ will,
 after the 50th anniversary celebration ends early in the summer, can 
 nearly all of it's veteran news, weather, and sports anchors. Just about
 the only veterans who'll be spared will be news anchor Jack Williams
(who
 will find himself during the second half of 1998 anchoring the weeknight
 6 and 11 P.M. newscasts SOLO) and sports anchor Bob Neumirier (who keeps
 his job because he also does Bruins' games on radio).

(9) With the acquisitions of WEEI and WRKO, WBZ moves it's Bruins and
other
 sports roadcasts to WEEI, WBCN's Patriots games also are simulcast on
 WEEI; and 'BZ moves David Brudnoy and Bob Raleigh to WRKO so that WBZ
 goes all-news 24/7. 

(10) The parade of canned DJ's will continue, and in fact, accelerate in
 1998. Stations will fire high-pricved talent to replace them with lower-
 priced announcers or even syndicated shows in some cases. Joe Martelle
 will be shown the door by WROR early; Charles Laquidara will resign
rather
 than accept a pay cut from WZLX; Tom Doyle will also be let go from
WROR;
 Baltazar will be fired from WJMN and replaced by the syndicated Tom
Joyner
 show; and WKLB-99.5's morning man (I seem to have forgotten his name)
will
 be let go and replaced by "Moby In The Morning". The reason for so many
 morning DJ's being let go is two words: Howard Stern. By the end of
1998,
 he will dominate morning radio in Boston to such a degree that Matty
 at Kiss-108 and Loren & Wally at WROR will barely be hanging-on, and
that
 many other stations will be forced to can their morning shows because of
 falling revenues in that daypart resulting from Stern's dominating the
 ratings scene.

(11) Opie & Anthony of WAAF will find themselves out of a job once the
 station has new owners. The new owners will not tolerate the two's
 attitudes towards racial minorities.

(11) At Channel 7, look for Kim Carrigan to be demoted and for Cathy
Marshall
 to join John Marler on the weeknight 5, 6, and 11 P.M. anchor desk.

(12) In June, WFXT-25 will become the last Fox O & O to start a 7 to 9
A.M.
 weekday-morning news block. WFXT will decide to go with a
15-or-20-minute
 "wheel" of mostly hard news (as opposed to the "fluff" often seen on the
 network morning shows), and by December, 1998, WFXT's local news block
will
 be a strong # 2 in the market, and gaining on "Today".

(13) WADN will cut it's losses and donate the station for a tax break to 
 U/Mass-Boston, which will rename the station WUMB-AM and use it as a
full-
 time simulcast of WUMB-FM. This will end WUMB's signal problems
northwest
 of Boston.

(14) WABU-68 will win the rights to televise Boston Celtics road games
 beginning in the fall of 1998--but only 25 a year, as opposed to the 35
 to 40 games WSBK has carried in recent years. There will be two
reasons--
 one to accmodate other sports events (see next item), the other is that
 Fox Sports New England (the new name for Sportschannel) will get 10 to
 14 road games, and will pick the 10 to 14 "best available" (meaning,.
NOT
 on the NBC network) road games (e.g. Chicago, Lakers, New York, etc.),
 leaving road games against "weak" and "stiff" teams on WABU. Doug Brown
 and former Celtic M.L. Carr will replace Tom Heinsohn and Bob Cousy as
 play-by-play and expert analyst respectively.

(15) After winning the Celtics, WABU-68 will buy-out from WSBK the final
 four years (1998-99 to 2001-02) of the latter's contract for Boston
Bruins
 games. Dave Shea will move with the Bruins to WABU, but Andy Brickley
 won't---the latter will move on to ESPN instead. 

(16) And, Doug Brown will also eventually replace Sean McDonough as
 channel 68's play-by-play voice on Red Sox games--probably by 1999,
 perhaps even for 1998, as Sean moves to CBS full-time.

(17) Sportschannel and NESN will merge under the name Fox Sports New
England,
 with an expanded schedule of local pro teams. In addition to an increase
 in Celtics games to 50 to 55 a year, you can also look forward to almost
 100 regular-season Red Sox games and 45 regular-season Bruins games
there
 as well.

(18) PBS will finally "bit the bullet" and re-schedule Jim Lehrer's
"Newshour"
 for 8 to 9 P.M. weeknights, putting it in prime-time. PBS will be lauded
by
 the nation's TV critics for this move. There will be some resistance
from
 member stations, but PBS will win out.

(19) NPR will split into two 24/7 networks (much like CBC radio in
Canada)--
 one news and information, the other music, arts, and cultural
programming.
 Member stations will be able to be affiliated with either network, but 
 NOT both. The split will occur in the fall of 1998, but by December,
NPR-1
 (the news/info network) will have the lion's share of NPR member
stations
 as affiliates, while NPR-2 (the arts/culture/music network) will have no
 more than 25 affiliates, many (such as WGBH-FM Boston, which will become
 the local NPR-2 station) of those carrying only some of NPR-2's
schedule.

(20) ADD, after acquiring WARA, will use it and 1430 (see above) as a
 leased-time ethnic simulcast. But for some in the 128 South belt, it
 won't be possible at night to listen to either 1320 OR 1430!

(21) Pirate Radio activity will accelerate in the winter and spring, and
will
 reach such a level that the FCC will be unable to effectively deal with
it.
 Here in greater Boston, there could be as many as two dozen pirate
stations
 on the air by December, 1998---and as many stations using the legal 100-
 milliwatt (one-tenth of a watt) limit for an unlicensed station to cover
 small neighborhoods!

(22) WBMT will stay on the air, becoming a community station, still based
at
 it's current location in a high-school, but no longer owned or operated
by
 the school. Instead, WBMT will become a "community" station with heavy
 involvement by school students as well as those in the community. The
 members of this newsgroup will play a major role in this change.

(23) WBZ radio will start running the on-the-hour CBS Radio
newscasts-----
 finally!

(24) Many music-intensive commercial FM stations, who have already dumped
 news from middays, afternoon drive, and nighttime, will dump news in
 morning drive and replace it with a few more minutes of music. In fact,
 I'm predicting that WMJX will not only dump news and traffic in the
 morning drive, but will reduce commercial spot loads to four minutes an
 hour, minimal weather forecasts/time checks/ID's, no longer identify
 songs played, and go for a "maximum music" morning show---which will be
 one of only two commercial stations (the other bring WBZ) that will be
 able to realistically compete against Mr. Stern.

(25) "LTAR", the official radio program of this newsgroup, will end up
 running on a few New England stations NOT owned by Bob Bittner. It will
 become even more respected as THE place to go to find out what's behind
 what's on the air.

(26) Boston will be by far the weakest market for the new "Paxnet" of Bud
 Paxson, thanks to poor signals (Channel 60 being in New Hampshire, a
 weak channel 54 translator in Needham, and a weak signal with a low
 tower for channel 46). As 1998 ends, Paxson will still be waiting for
 local regulartory approval to build his new channel 46 tower in the
 Bridgewater area.

(27) This will be the year cable operators, pressured by consumer
complaints
 about rising rates on one side and the FCC on the other, finally try to
 control costs by dumping cable networks that charge stiff per-subscriber
 fees. The networks will get the message by the end of the year and lower
 fees cable companies pay to carry them (and raise advertising rates on
 the other hand). But some subscribers of some cable companies may find
 some familiar networks missing from their cable box for a good chunk of
 1998.

(28) Not only will 1998 be the year that first-run episodes of "Seinfeld"
 disappear (this is already firm), but network prime-time itself will
 shrink. First ABC, then CBS and finally NBC will give the 10-11 P.M.
 (EST/EDT) hour back to their affiliates in September, and take back the
 11-11:30 P.M. (EST/EDT) half-hour. Upshot: ABC, CBS, and NBC stations
 will have an hour-long 10 P.M. newscast every night starting in the fall
 of '98, and "Nightline", Letterman, and Leno respectively will start at
 11 instead of the traditional 11:30, which will result in higher ratings
 --and most importantly, more revenues from advertisers--for all three
 shows.

(29) Related to the last point, channels 25, 38 and 56 might go for 11
P.M.
 newscasts, filling the void lefs when channels 4, 5, and 7 moved to a 10
 P.M. news as explained in the last prediction.

(30) Old friend Tom Bergeron will indeed take over as co-host of "Good
 Morning America" during 1998---but by the end of 1998, only "Today"
among
 the three network morning shows will enjoy good ratings. ABC and CBS
will
 begin serious discussions, as 1998 ends, about getting out of the 7-9
A.M.
 daypart and turning that time back to local stations who can do local
 morning news shows. This will come about because of both "Today"'s
 dominant position nationally, the local 7-9 A.M. news blocks on many Fox
 stations often grabbing the # 1 slot in their markets during those
hours.

(31) The FCC will rule that NBC will not have to spin off WJAR-10 in
 Providence inspite of the vast signal overlap between it and WHDH-7 in
 Boston, which I am predicting will also become an NBC O & O in 1998.

(32) Don't get too used to "The Hawk" in Rhode Island. By the end of
1998,
 it will be sold to a group of philantroiprists who in turn will donate
it
 to the owners of Rhode Island's PBS station, WSBE-36 in Providence,
 and it will thus become Rhode Island's first NPR station, taking NPR-1
 (see another of my predictions above) news/talk programming.

(33) Cuba will increase jamming of AM signals in the U.S., trying to jam
as
 many frequencies between 540 and 1600 as possible. But by the end of
1998,
 Cuba will suddenly find itself in the midst of a second revolution--one
 which will end with Cuba becoming a true democracy, much like the
one-time
 Communist nations of Eastern Europe. Once the new democratic government
is
 in place, Cuban jamming will end, and there will be a reinssance of AM
 radio in the southeast.

(34) WPLM-FM in Plymouth will be sold to the owners of WBOQ, which will
use
 99.1 to rebroadcast WBOQ to Boston and points south. While 99.1 will
 become classical, Ron Della Chiesa's "Music America" will stay for the

 moment---until the show and it's host are lured away by the new
WXKS-1200.
 Once that happens, Saturday nights will go over to classical music.

(35) The FCC and the CRTC will fight over who should get the clear
channel
 on 740 once CBL Toronto leaves that frequency. The FCC will argue for 
 making 740 a U.S. clear channel (with the clear-channel station being
 in Cambridge, Massachusetts!), while the CRTC will argue that 740 should
 remain a Canadian clear channel. This will take years to settle, but in
 the meantime, no other stations will be able to move onto 740. For a
 few years, WJIB's night signal will be listenable in al of greater
Boston.

(36) Attorney Al Grady, owner of WDIS in Norfolk, will be looking for new
 call lettrers for his station---and have a lot more money in his bank
 account. He'll sell-off the rights to use the call letters "WDIS" to
 Disney/ABC, who will promptly re-name it's New York stations WDIS-AM
770,
 WDIS-FM 95.5, and WDIS-TV 7.

(37) Heftel will try to get into the Boston market to purchase an FM
station
 to make it all-Spanish, but nobody (at this point) will be willing to
sell.

Thanks for reading this rather lengthy list of predictions. Please
comment on
 how many of them might become true during 1998.

Joseph Gallant
________________________________________________________________

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